{"id":26848,"date":"2017-09-30T23:20:52","date_gmt":"2017-09-30T20:20:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politeknik.org.tr\/\/?p=26848"},"modified":"2019-01-29T14:25:22","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T11:25:22","slug":"iklim-degisikligi-tartismalarinda-madalyonun-oteki-yuzu-kerem-cankocak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/iklim-degisikligi-tartismalarinda-madalyonun-oteki-yuzu-kerem-cankocak\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda madalyonun \u00f6teki y\u00fcz\u00fc – Kerem Canko\u00e7ak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hemen her g\u00fcn bas\u0131nda, televizyonlarda, sosyal medyada \u201cinsan faaliyetleri sonucu d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131n \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d ve yak\u0131n zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fck iklim felaketleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131za hatta belki de b\u00fct\u00fcn insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yok olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlere denk geliyoruz. Bu haberler belki do\u011frudur belki de de\u011fildir. Bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131 ne k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 do\u011frulamak ne de ona kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmak. Amac\u0131m\u0131z k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n her yerde rastlayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 aktarmak. Bu bir bilimsel tart\u0131\u015fma ve hen\u00fcz sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015f da de\u011fil. <\/p>\n

Bilimde anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar, anla\u015fmalar kadar \u00f6nemlidir ve bazen do\u011fruyu bulaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z en do\u011fru yer, en umulmad\u0131k yerde kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ftedir. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi konusunda \u00e7ok fazla tek kaynakl\u0131 haber yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun ileride de\u011finece\u011fimiz baz\u0131 politik ve sosyolojik nedenleri var. O nedenle, kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerden de haberimizin olmas\u0131 gerek. \u0130\u015fte bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi konusunda her yerde rastlayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin do\u011frusuyla yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131yla bir \u00f6zetini vermek. <\/p>\n

Gelece\u011fin bilim insanlar\u0131 olacak olan sevgili \u00f6\u011frenciler, sizler her konuda oldu\u011fu gibi bu konuda da hi\u00e7 kimsenin s\u00f6yledi\u011fine inanmadan, eldeki verileri, arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131, kan\u0131tlar\u0131 inceleyerek kendi kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 kendiniz vermelisiniz.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle \u201cuzmanl\u0131k alanlar\u0131yla\u201d ilgili gelebilecek bir itiraza de\u011fineyim. Ben bir par\u00e7ac\u0131k fizik\u00e7isiyim, iklim bilimci de\u011fil. Dolas\u0131yla iklim bilimiyle u\u011fra\u015fan bilim insanlar\u0131 bu yaz\u0131ya \u201cuzmanl\u0131k alan\u0131 olmayan konularla ilgilendi\u011fim\u201d i\u00e7in itiraz edebilirler. Ancak d\u00fcnyaca \u00fcnl\u00fc iklimbilimci Mike Hulme\u2019\u00fcn belirtti\u011fi gibi, \u201c…iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak fiziksel bir olgu olman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra sosyal bir olgu haline gelmi\u015ftir. Bu iki olgu da birbirinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131d\u0131r,\u201d [Hulme, 2016]. \u00d6te yandan ‘\u0130klim bilim’ bir temel bilim de\u011fil. Di\u011fer fizik, kimya, biyoloji gibi temel bilimlerin bulgular\u0131n\u0131n topland\u0131\u011f\u0131, de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi ve sonuca ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir disiplinleraras\u0131 bilim. Y\u00fczlerce \u00f6rnek aras\u0131ndan birini vermek gerekirse, kozmik \u0131\u015f\u0131nlar par\u00e7ac\u0131k fizik\u00e7ilerinin konusu ve k\u00fcresel iklim modellemelerinde \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir yere sahipler. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an sera etkisinin temel kayna\u011f\u0131 olan bulut formasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kozmik \u0131\u015f\u0131nlardan \u00e7ok \u015fiddetli bir \u015fekilde etkilendi\u011fine ili\u015fin bulgular var. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 i\u00e7inde par\u00e7ac\u0131k fizik\u00e7ilerinin de bulundu\u011fu disiplinleraras\u0131 bir ekip y\u00fcr\u00fctmekte. Di\u011fer yandan, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya insan kaynakl\u0131 karbon dioksitin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin en \u00f6nemli (belki de tek) arg\u00fcman olan sim\u00fclasyon (yani d\u00fcnya ikliminin bilgisayar ortam\u0131nda modellenmesi) ilk kez fizik\u00e7iler taraf\u0131ndan icat edilen ve \u00f6zellikle par\u00e7ac\u0131k fizik\u00e7ileri taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen bir tekniktir. Son olarak, bu d\u00fcnyada ya\u015fayan herkes gibi, d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten \u0131s\u0131n\u0131p \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yorsa bunun hangi mekanizmalar taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini merak eden bir insan olarak epeyce ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapt\u0131m ve olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131m. Normal bas\u0131n-yay\u0131n organlar\u0131nda bu farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere yer verilmemesi nedeniyle, tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 (taraf tutmadan) sizlere aktarmay\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Ancak yer darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle bu yaz\u0131da daha \u00e7ok ayk\u0131r\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere yer veriyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yayg\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler zaten her g\u00fcn her yerde yay\u0131nlanmakta.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle d\u00fcnya iklimiyle ilgili bilimsel tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n iki temel eksende y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyelim. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikliminin 4,5 milyar y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi bilimsel bir ger\u00e7ek. Buna kimsenin itiraz\u0131 yok. D\u00fcnya ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00e7ok so\u011fuk d\u00f6nemlerden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi gibi \u00e7ok s\u0131cak d\u00f6nemler de ya\u015fad\u0131. Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0131s\u0131nmakta olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Her ne kadar b\u00fct\u00fcn bas\u0131n-yay\u0131n organlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma alarm\u0131 verilse de, \u00e7ok say\u0131da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bilim insan\u0131 buna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor [ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7in bkz. GGWS]. <\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, karbon dioksitin (CO2) d\u00fcnyan\u0131n iklimini etkiledi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcren IPCC raporlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da \u00e7ok say\u0131da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bilim insan\u0131n\u0131n itiraz\u0131 var. Hatta bu konuda 31 bin bilim insan\u0131 bildiri yay\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f durumda [GWPP]. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma alarmc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eken kurum IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli). 1988 y\u0131l\u0131nda Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin b\u00fcnyesinde kurulan bu \u00f6rg\u00fct, b\u00fct\u00fcn mali deste\u011fini h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerden alan politik bir kurulu\u015f. Muhalifler IPCC\u2019yi \u015fiddetle ele\u015ftiriyorlar. Londra \u00dcniversitesi Biyoco\u011frafya B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden emekli profes\u00f6r Philip Stott IPCC\u2019nin di\u011fer t\u00fcm Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u00f6rg\u00fctleri gibi politik bir \u00f6rg\u00fct oldu\u011funu ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlar\u0131n bilimsel de\u011fil tamamen politik oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. Pasteur Enstit\u00fcs\u00fcnden Paul Reiter, IPCC\u2019deki \u201cara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n\u201d \u00e7o\u011funun bilim insan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor ve IPCC raporlar\u0131nda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere yer verilmedi\u011fini, raporlara itiraz eden bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n isimlerinin bile sildirmelerine izin verilmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor [GGWS].<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn muhalifler IPCC\u2019nin yay\u0131nlar\u0131na itiraz ediyorlar ve bunlar\u0131n bilimi \u00e7arp\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ediyorlar. Asl\u0131nda bilim tarihi a\u00e7s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 bir \u00f6rnek bu. Belki de 15. Y\u00fczy\u0131ldan bu yana bilimde b\u00f6ylesine bir kampla\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir. Bir tarafta b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00fcc\u00fcyle sanayile\u015fmi\u015f devletler, ana ak\u0131m medya, haber kurulu\u015flar\u0131, NASA, IPCC, National Geographic vb gibi kurumlar bilimsel bir tart\u0131\u015fmada taraf oluyorlar ve bunu politik bir arenaya ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli kararlar al\u0131yorlar. Di\u011fer tarafta muhalif bilim insanlar\u0131 seslerini sadece \u0130nternette duyurabiliyorlar. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 sorgulamaya kalkan bir gazeteci i\u015finden at\u0131l\u0131yor, \u00fcniversitelerde muhalif akademisyenlerin i\u015f bulma \u015fans\u0131 yok. Daimi kadrosu olan muhalif \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyelerininse proje alma \u015fanslar\u0131 yok. New Scientist eski edit\u00f6r\u00fc Nigel Calder, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya kar\u015f\u0131 bir yaz\u0131n\u0131n olanaks\u0131z oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Nobel \u00f6d\u00fcll\u00fc fizik\u00e7i Ivar Giaever \u201cK\u00fcresel Is\u0131nmay\u0131\u201d yeni din olarak betimliyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc diyor \u201conu tart\u0131\u015fam\u0131yorsunuz,.. t\u0131pk\u0131 Katolik Kilisesi gibi\u201d [Lindau, 2015]. Amerikan Fizik Derne\u011fi \u201ck\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma yads\u0131namaz\u201d karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dernekten istifa eden Ivar Giaever, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini savunanlardan.<\/p>\n

S\u00fcperiletkenlik \u00fczerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarla Nobel alan ve uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7mek olan Ivar Giaever konu\u015fmas\u0131nda \u015fu noktalara dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: K\u00fcresel Is\u0131nma savunucular\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k s\u0131k g\u00f6sterdikleri s\u0131cakl\u0131k e\u011frisi hi\u00e7 bir anlama gelmiyor. <\/p>\n

Sekil 1\u2019de g\u00f6sterilen e\u011fri, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 1880\u2019den 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k e\u011frisi. Y-ekseni 1 derecelik fark\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu hassasl\u0131kla belirlemenin olanaks\u0131z oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Giaever, her \u015feye ra\u011fmen bu grafi\u011fi kabul etsek bile, sonucu \u015f\u00f6yle yorumluyor: \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu grafi\u011fe g\u00f6re %0,3 derece artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, ki bu da asl\u0131nda s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tamamen stabil oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir.\u201d
\n\"\"<\/a>
\n\u015eekil 1: K\u00fcresel Is\u0131nma alamc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6sterdikleri y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k e\u011frisi<\/p>\n

Giaever ayr\u0131ca \u015fu hususlar\u0131 da belirtiyor. NASA\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktalar sadece 3846 adet ve bunlar \u015eekil 2\u2019de yer al\u0131yor. B\u00fct\u00fcn bir Antartika k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en sadece 8 adet termometre var. 8 termometreyle koca k\u0131tan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu hassasl\u0131kla \u00f6l\u00e7menin olanaks\u0131z oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7eken Giaever, ayr\u0131ca Antartika\u2019n\u0131n hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar so\u011fuk oldu\u011funa ve buzlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca Giaever d\u00fcnyan\u0131n optimal s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ne olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de kimsenin bilmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.
\n\"\"<\/a>
\n\u015eekil 2: D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 3846 nokta.<\/p>\n

\u015eekil 3\u2019teki grafikte de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, muhaliflerin iddias\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyada 19 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. <\/p>\n

Prof. Easterbrook, Prof Tim Ball, Prof. Roy Warren Spencer gibi \u00f6nde gelen pek \u00e7ok iklimbilimci, \u00e7evrebilimci ve digger bilim dallar\u0131ndan bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 Heartland konferanslar\u0131nda IPCC raporlar\u0131 ele\u015ftiriliyor ve IPCC bilimi \u00e7arp\u0131tmakla su\u00e7lan\u0131yor. \u0130lgili videolar youtube\u2019dan izlenebilir [Heartland, 2014 ve 2017].<\/p>\n

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\n\u015eekil 3: Son 19 y\u0131l\u0131n s\u0131cakl\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131, 1998 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda stabil durumda [RSS].<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma konusunda ayk\u0131r\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f belirtmek hi\u00e7 kolay de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Hangi taraf\u0131n hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir tarafa, bu durum insan\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130klim konusundaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar politik ideoloji haline gelmi\u015f durumda. Greenpeace\u2019in kurucular\u0131ndan Patrick Moore bu durumdan rahats\u0131z oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in istifa etmi\u015f. Patrick Moore\u2019a g\u00f6re bu aktivist hareket k\u00fcresel boyutta etkiye sahip [GGWS]. <\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyaca \u00fcnl\u00fc fizik\u00e7i Freeman Dyson kendini \u201ciklim de\u011fi\u015fimi kafiri\u201d olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve ortodokslu\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bilimin her zaman kafirlere ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u0130klimbilimci olmamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n bilgisayar modellemelerini \u00e7ok iyi bilen Dyson iklim modellerinin yetersiz oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Dyson\u2019a g\u00f6re b\u00f6ylesine zay\u0131f modellemelerden bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131karmak olanaks\u0131z [Dyson, 2015 ve 2007]\n

Muhaliflerin temel arg\u00fcman\u0131 \u015fu: Bilim hipotezler \u00fcretir ve bu hipotezler test edilir. Bu konuda IPCC\u2019nin hipotezi insan kaynakl\u0131 CO2\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya neden oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Oysa muhaliflere g\u00f6re, g\u00f6zlemler bu hipotezin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte CO2\u2019in g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczden kat kat fazla oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemler ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Winnipeg \u00dcniversitesinden iklimbilimci Tim Ball ve di\u011fer muhalifler, CO2\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya neden oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131n bilimsel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyorlar. CO2\u2019nin bir kirlilik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bitkiler i\u00e7in \u00e7ok faydal\u0131 oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorlar [GGWS].<\/p>\n

Peki k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma konusunda insanlar neden anla\u015fam\u0131yorlar. \u015e\u00fcphesiz sorunun hem bilimsel hem de sosyolojik boyutu var. Mike Hulme\u2019a g\u00f6re \u201c\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi kavram\u0131 art\u0131k, k\u00f6kenini yaln\u0131zca do\u011fa bilimlerinden alan bir olgu olman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde seyreder hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, yeni k\u00fclt\u00fcrlerle tan\u0131\u015f\u0131p, siyaset, ekonomi, pop\u00fcler k\u00fclt\u00fcr, ticaret ve din kavramlar\u0131yla da kar\u015f\u0131la\u015farak -genellikle medyan\u0131n arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla\u2013 yeni anlamlar kazan\u0131r ve yeni ama\u00e7lara hizmet eder.\u201d [Hulme, 2016]\n

NASA\u2019n\u0131n Uydudan Havadurumu Ekibi lideri Roy Spencer, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma alarm\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fka bir boyutuna dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Dr. Spencer\u2019a g\u00f6re baz\u0131 bilim insanlar\u0131 gereksiz yere panik yaratarak ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek finansman\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yorlar [GGWS].<\/p>\n

Virginia \u00dcniversitesi \u00c7evre Bilimleri B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden Prof. Patrick Michaels, \u201ck\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma alarm\u0131\u201d sayesinde on binlerce yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor ve bunun \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck bir end\u00fcstri\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor [GGWS].
\n\u00d6te yandan, ikimbilim asl\u0131nda bir t\u00fcr \u201ckaos kuram\u0131\u201d. D\u00fcnya iklimini nelerin etkiledi\u011fini ve hangi y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fini belirlemek \u00e7ok zor. Daha \u201cbasit\u201d bir bilimden, fizikten \u00f6rnek verecek olursak iki atom-alt\u0131 par\u00e7ac\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki olaylar\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hassasl\u0131kla a\u00e7\u0131klayan kuantum kuramlar\u0131m\u0131z var ama atomlar\u0131n bir araya gelip de \u00f6rne\u011fin kristal gibi bir madde olu\u015fturduklar\u0131 durumun benzer bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak yapam\u0131yoruz, \u201cbeliren \u00f6zellikler\u201d gibisinden ka\u00e7amak cevaplar veriyoruz. Buradaki zorluk \u00e7okluktan, sistemin kompleks olu\u015fundan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Tek tek par\u00e7alar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabiliyoruz da, \u00e7ok say\u0131da par\u00e7a oldu\u011funda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olguyu a\u00e7\u0131klamakta zorlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Kimi muhalifler, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma alarm\u0131 verenlerin ve buna dayanarak CO2 \u00fcretimini kontrol edenlerin k\u00fcresel sermeye oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, bunun emperyalizmin yeni silah\u0131 oldu\u011funu savunuyorlar. Onlara g\u00f6re geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bahane ederek geli\u015fme olan \u00fclkelerin sanayile\u015fmesini engelliyorlar. \u00d6rne\u011fin Afrika\u2019daki az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere yap\u0131lan yard\u0131mlar CO2 sal\u0131m\u0131 olmamas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla veriliyor ve bu da o \u00fclkelerin hi\u00e7 bir \u015fekilde sanayile\u015fememesi demek. Jeolog yazar Paul K. Driessen, Eco-Imperialism kitab\u0131nda bu olguyu ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131yla inceliyor [Driessen 2003].<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak \u201ck\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma\u201d \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir konu ama inan\u0131yorum ki, zaman i\u00e7inde tart\u0131\u015fmalar politikadan soyutlan\u0131p daha bilimsel bir temele oturacak ve hangi taraf\u0131n hakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u0130nsanl\u0131k tarihinde her zaman ak\u0131l ve bilim kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kerem Canko\u00e7ak – Akademisyen\/\u0130T\u00dc Fizik B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kaynaklar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hulme, M. 2016: Mike Hulme, \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Konusunda Neden Anla\u015fam\u0131yoruz,
\nAlfa Bilim Dizisi, 2016<\/p>\n

GWPP: http:\/\/www.petitionproject.org\/<\/p>\n

Lindau, 2015: Ivar Giaever: Global Warming Revisited (Lindau Nobel Laurate
\nToplant\u0131s\u0131, 2015) https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Dk60CUkf3Kw<\/p>\n

RSS: http:\/\/www.remss.com\/research\/climate
\n[Heartland 2014] https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2014\/07\/08\/return-denial-paloozaheartland-institute-hitches-anti-science-wagon-freedomfest<\/p>\n[Heartland 2017] http:\/\/climateconference.heartland.org\/<\/p>\n

Dyson, 2015: http:\/\/www.theregister.co.uk\/2015\/10\/11\/freeman_dyson_interview\/<\/p>\n

Dyson, 2007: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JTSxubKfTBU&t=1s<\/p>\n

GGWS: The Great Global Warming Swindle belgeseli (youtube)
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