Hazine eski b\u00fcrokrat\u0131 Osman Tunaboylu, 2001 krizinin nedenlerini anlat\u0131rken kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 bu s\u00f6z\u00fc. 1990-93 aras\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Ekonomi Ticaret Ba\u015f M\u00fc\u015faviriyken finans\u00e7\u0131lardan duyarm\u0131\u015f s\u0131k s\u0131k. Ne vakit bir \u00fclke daha sermaye hareketlerini serbest b\u0131raksa, \u201cAh\u0131ra yeni inek geldi\u201d derlermi\u015f. Fazlas\u0131yla onur k\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 elbette. Ama s\u0131cak para akarken, kimse kendini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f hissetmiyordu. Tunaboylu da buna i\u015faret ediyordu zaten. \u201c1994 krizine kadar her \u015fey o kadar g\u00fczeldi ki. D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen s\u0131cak parayla borsa s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckseliyor, kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, faiz y\u00fcksek, herkes kazan\u0131yor\u2026 Param\u0131z konvertibil edildi\u011finde, d\u00fcnya devleti oluyoruz sand\u0131k\u201d diyordu. (*) B\u00fcrokrat nezaketini bir kenara b\u0131raksa, devam\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle getirirdi muhtemelen: Me\u011fer basbaya\u011f\u0131 ine\u011fe d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz!<\/p>\n
Piyasa ekonomisinin i\u015fleyi\u015fini ve krizlerin nas\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturuldu\u011funu anlatan berrak bir anekdot bu asl\u0131nda. Zira herkesin kaybetti\u011fi bir kriz ve herkesin birden kurtuldu\u011fu bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, maliyetle k\u00e2r, ayr\u0131 hanelere yaz\u0131l\u0131r. Me\u015f\u2019um \u201ck\u00e2r \u015firketlerin zarar kamunun\u201d prensibinin titizlikle icra edilmesi mecburidir. Sermayenin lehine, eme\u011fin aleyhine; \u015firketlerin lehine, halk\u0131n aleyhine; servet sahiplerinin lehine, \u00fccretlilerin aleyhine a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e kriz s\u00fcrer \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye h\u0131zla buraya do\u011fru ilerliyor i\u015fte. Halihaz\u0131rda zamana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imde topluma par\u00e7a par\u00e7a kesilen faturan\u0131n nihai tutar\u0131 gittik\u00e7e kabar\u0131yor. S\u00fct t\u00fckeniyor, s\u0131ra ete geliyor yani. Ve kurulan mezbahada, t\u0131pk\u0131 1994 ve 2001 krizlerinde oldu\u011fu gibi kamu bankalar\u0131 hayati bir rol \u00fcstleniyor.<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta \u00fc\u00e7 kamu bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ktidar medyas\u0131 aktif b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck ve karl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, ekonomide \u2018\u015fahlanman\u0131n\u2019 g\u00f6stergesi olarak bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 gururla sayfalar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u2018\u015eahlanman\u0131n\u2019 ard\u0131nda ucuz kredinin yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 malum. Nitekim Ziraat Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n verdi\u011fi krediler ilk alt\u0131 ayda y\u00fczde 24.5 artarak 700 milyar liraya ula\u015ft\u0131. Halkbank\u2019ta kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 30.8 ve hacim 522 milyar lira, Vak\u0131fbank\u2019ta ise y\u00fczde 32 art\u0131\u015fla 386 milyar liraya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Peki bu \u2018parlak\u2019 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n bedeli ne oldu ve kime \u00f6detildi?<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, ekonomist U\u011fur G\u00fcrses\u2019in tabiriyle, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018arka kap\u0131s\u0131na\u2019 kamu bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ba\u011flanan \u2018hortumla\u2019 sa\u011fland\u0131 ve 100 milyar dolar\u0131 bulan d\u00f6viz rezervi eriyip gitti. B\u00f6ylece belli seviyede tutulan kur sayesinde d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lusu \u015firketlere d\u00f6viz alma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli TL kredileriyle de hem bunun finansman\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama, hem de bor\u00e7 desenini yerli paraya kayd\u0131rma imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131ld\u0131. Pandemide reel gelirleri d\u00fc\u015fen vatanda\u015fa gelince; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli krediyle daha da bor\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131lar. \u00dcstelik kendi dertleri yetmezmi\u015f gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn operasyon kamu kayna\u011f\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in kuru tutman\u0131n maliyetini de \u00fcstlenmi\u015f oldular. \u00dczerine bir de yeniden f\u0131rlayan kur ve faizin tahribat\u0131 biniyor \u015fimdi.<\/p>\n
Ne var ki kamu bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden zarar\u0131n toplumsalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 bununla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00c7ok daha tehlikeli, bilan\u00e7olarda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen bir saatli bomba t\u0131k\u0131r t\u0131k\u0131r geriye say\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2001\u2019de bat\u0131k bankalar\u0131n maliyetini \u00fcstlenen toplum, bu krizde de bir avu\u00e7 \u015firketin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7 da\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131rtlanmak zorunda kalacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
Prof. Dr. U\u011fur Emek otoyollardan hastanelere, n\u00fckleer santrale uzanan Kamu-\u00d6zel \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi (K\u00d6\u0130) projelerinin ekonomiye toplam y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc 146 milyar dolar olarak hesapl\u0131yor. Bu da 750 milyar dolarl\u0131k GSY\u0130H\u2019nin y\u00fczde 19.5\u2019i demek. E\u011fer kamunun y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yasalara uygun kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nsa, iktidar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 35.1 ile nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalan kamu bor\u00e7 stoku, y\u00fczde 54.6\u2019ya f\u0131rlayacak. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kamunun borcu \u00f6yle risksiz filan de\u011fil. Mega projelerin finansman detaylar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tablo \u00e7ok daha karanl\u0131k bir h\u00e2l al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kimlere ne kadar kredi da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyoruz fakat, ula\u015f\u0131labilir veriler bile topluma y\u0131k\u0131lacak maliyet konusunda fikir veriyor. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n raporlar\u0131ndan nereden kredi bulduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebildi\u011fimiz 7 projenin kamu bankalar\u0131na y\u00fck\u00fc \u015f\u00f6yle:
\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/b_1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Bu projelerin finansal kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 2014 ve sonras\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu 4 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6demesiz, ortalama vadesi de 9-10 y\u0131l. Yani taksit \u00f6demeleri 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6dendi mi, yine bilemiyoruz. Mesela; \u0130stanbul Havaliman\u0131 i\u00e7in bor\u00e7 yap\u0131land\u0131rma giri\u015fimi vard\u0131, ayr\u0131ca iki y\u0131ld\u0131r devlete \u00f6demesi gereken KDV dahil 1 milyar euro\u2019yu bulan kiran\u0131n da ertelendi\u011fi bas\u0131nda yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kurdan 7 projenin kredi tutar\u0131 70 milyar lira civar\u0131nda. Sadece havaliman\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ekilen kredinin TL cinsinden tutar\u0131 27.5 milyar lira. Oysa kredi anla\u015fmas\u0131 2015 Ocak ay\u0131nda imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu miktar 9 milyar liray\u0131 ancak buluyordu. Krediyi alan \u015firketlerin yapt\u0131klar\u0131 i\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz cinsinden gelirleri bulunmuyor. \u015eu y\u00fcksek kur d\u00fczeyinde d\u00f6viz sat\u0131n al\u0131p kredilerini kapatacaklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen var m\u0131 \u00f6yleyse? Yaz\u0131 i\u00e7in verilerin toplanmas\u0131yla, yaz\u0131lmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrede dahi kamunun \u00fczerindeki kredi y\u00fck\u00fc 1 milyar liraya yak\u0131n art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ktidar\u0131n kamu kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 heba etme pahas\u0131na kuru sabitleyip, faizleri reel olarak negatife \u00e7ekmesinin bir nedeni de buydu. Zora d\u00fc\u015fen \u015firketlerin bir yandan d\u00f6viz toplamas\u0131 ve ucuz TL kredisiyle de finansman sa\u011flamas\u0131yd\u0131. Maliyetin topluma y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrar hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Ne 1994\u2019te ne de 2001\u2019de \u015firketler kamuya y\u00fckledikleri faturay\u0131 \u00f6demediler, \u015fimdi de \u00f6demeyecekler. Lakin mega projelerin kredi y\u00fck\u00fc bununla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa iyi. Kamudan \u00e7ekilen paralar\u0131n yan\u0131nda bir de kamunun garanti verdi\u011fi \u00f6zel bankalardan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f krediler duruyor. Gelin bir de onlara bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo y\u0131llara g\u00f6re mega projelerde Bor\u00e7 \u00dcstlenim Anla\u015fmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u015firketlerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 kredilerin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n Hazine taraf\u0131ndan garanti edildi\u011fini, \u00f6denmedi\u011fi zaman kamunun \u00fcstlenece\u011fi maliyeti g\u00f6steriyor. Miktarlar birikimli olarak seyrediyor.
\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/b_2.png\")
<\/p>\n
Hazine M\u00fcste\u015farl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2020 itibariyle K\u00d6\u0130 kapsam\u0131nda toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m tutar\u0131 21 milyar 364 milyon 762 bin 637 dolar olan projeler i\u00e7in \u00e7ekilen kredilerin 17 milyar 200 milyon 669 dolar\u0131na devlet garant\u00f6r oldu. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kura da \u00e7evirelim: 159 milyar liral\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in 127.2 milyar liral\u0131k kredi garantisi var ortada. \u0130\u015fin bir di\u011fer \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 taraf\u0131 da 2014\u2019de proje tutar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 44.6\u2019s\u0131 kadar kredi garantisi verilirken, krizin patlak verdi\u011fi 2018\u2019den itibaren oran y\u00fczde 80.6\u2019ya f\u0131rlamas\u0131. \u0130haleleri alan \u015firketler neredeyse elini cebine atmam\u0131\u015f, her 10 dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n 8 dolar\u0131n\u0131 da kamuya y\u0131km\u0131\u015flar demek. Bunu \u00f6derler mi peki?<\/p>\n
***<\/p>\n
Tunaboylu, \u2018s\u00fct-et\u2019 derken d\u0131\u015f kaynaklara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonominin istedi\u011fi kadar elindeki kur-faiz-enflasyon boncuklar\u0131yla oynay\u0131p dursun, sonucun de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yordu. Al\u0131nmaca g\u00fccenmece yok; \u2018sa\u011f\u0131lan-sa\u011fan\u2019, \u2018kesilen-kesen\u2019 ili\u015fkisi de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi, maliyet onu yaratanlara y\u0131k\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece krizler daima fatura topluma havale edilerek a\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Bunun iyilikle k\u00f6t\u00fcl\u00fckle ilgisi yoktur.<\/p>\n
*Krizin S\u00f6zl\u00fc Tarihi, Hatice Aydo\u011fdu-Nurhan Y\u00f6nezer, Dipnot Yay\u0131nlar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"AKP\u2019nin d\u00fcnya y\u0131k\u0131lsa vazge\u00e7medi\u011fi \u2018beton ekonomisi\u2019nin kamunun ba\u011fr\u0131na yerle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00f6yle bir saatli…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4689],"tags":[1834,3712,1563,3527,5176],"class_list":{"0":"post-33599","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-secki","8":"tag-3-havalimani","9":"tag-manset","10":"tag-mega-projeler","11":"tag-yap-islet-devret","12":"tag-yip-projeleri"},"acf":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33599\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eonmeet.com\/pol\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}